The Battle Against Bosnia: A Fight for Italy's "Top Sport" Status?

Written by Han Bing The match in Zenica, Bosnia, at 1 a.m. Beijing time on April 1st, is a "final" that Italian football cannot afford to lose. Italy cannot bear the blow of missing the World Cup three consecutive times, which severely undermines football's central role in Italy's social, cultural, and political fabric. La Gazzetta dello Sport lamented: In Italy, the EU country with the highest population aging and an average age of 49, football's continued development partly relies on collective memories tied to identity—namely, the success of the Italian national team in the World Cup. If Italy fails to qualify for the World Cup for 16 consecutive years, Italian football may even face an industry crisis where it loses its status as the "top sport."

After missing two consecutive World Cups, the audience for Italian football dropped from 23.3 million in 2021 to 21.6 million in 2025, while tennis audiences rose to 19.9 million. On March 29th at the F1 Japanese Grand Prix, 19-year-old Italian driver Antonelli became the youngest "back-to-back" race winner in F1 and the first Italian winner in nearly 20 years. Capello expressed helplessness: "Young people prefer tennis and F1, where there are young idols. What about Italian football? If we miss the World Cup for the third time, we will lose the entire football industry."

Qualifying for the World Cup would not only save Italian football but also its economy and society. Despite Italy's absence from the 2018 World Cup, football still contributed €124 billion to Italy's GDP, benefiting at least 28 million people. Research from the University of Surrey shows that after winning the 2006 World Cup, Italy's GDP grew by an average of 0.25% in the following two quarters. The Italian Football Federation estimates that winning the 2006 World Cup and the 2021 European Championship boosted Italy's GDP growth rate by 0.7% to 1%.

Qualifying for the World Cup would secure at least €100 million in revenue for the Italian Football Federation, including €90 million from advertising and sponsorship and €10 million in bonuses from FIFA. Italy's catering and gambling industries would also benefit significantly. During the 2022 World Cup when Italy was absent, the Italian gambling industry generated €500 million in revenue; entering the World Cup would increase that revenue by an order of magnitude.

At the pre-match press conference, Dzeko mentioned the video of Italian players Dimarco, Esposito, and Vicario celebrating wildly after winning the semi-final playoff penalty shootout. Dzeko showed no lack of confidence, stating he felt no offense but also pointed out: "I don't know why Italians didn't want to play in Wales; they are four-time World Cup champions. Being so afraid of Wales must indicate a problem. Italy is different now; they still have strength, but those veterans are not the same as before."

Dzeko refuted the issue of Zenica's poor pitch conditions: "Bad pitch? Italians are used to it; many stadiums in Italy aren't much better." Bosnia's coach Barbarez was confident: " Italians say our football is slow-paced, but theirs is slow too. If we score first, we'll park the bus in front of our goal; if we concede first, we'll park the bus elsewhere." Italian media introduced this former Bundesliga star as a poker expert who has coached Bosnia for two years and knows the team well. Gattuso has only coached for six months, during which he also had to manage his own restaurant...

But Italians have their own confidence. Mancini and Calafiori were Dzeko's teammates at Roma, while Bastoni and Dimarco were his teammates at Milan; they know Dzeko very well. Torino Sport predicts Gattuso will stick to his usual approach, with Mancini, Bastoni, and Calafiori forming the defense, Dimarco and Politano on the wings, and Tonali continuing to support Retegui and Kean in midfield.

In last year's European World Cup qualifiers group stage, Bosnia only narrowly beat San Marino 1-0 in Zenica. San Marino's Italian coach Chevoli provided crucial intelligence: "Stopping Dzeko completely stifles Bosnia. Bosnia also has players in Serie A, but Bosnia's playing style is easy to predict, with no fast players; just be cautious of their home advantage."

The Italian team conducted its final training at the Coverciano base on the morning of the 30th and departed for Sarajevo in the afternoon. The only issue is that Zenica has recently experienced rain and snow; the team arrived later in Zenica due to the恶劣 weather. During the match, the pitch will be soft and muddy, and the stadium will only have seats for fewer than 9,000 spectators. However, according to Ancelotti, it's still better than the World Cup playoff in Moscow in October 1997, played in heavy snowfall: "I trust Gattuso; I'll wait for him at the World Cup!"