World Cup nightmare three times, the end of the world for Italian football

Written by Han Bing Italy lost 1-4 in penalties and 2-5 in aggregate to Bosnia, marking their third consecutive elimination by a lower-ranked team in the World Cup European qualifiers playoffs. The Milan Sports Paper bluntly stated this is another historic failure for Italy; Italian football is facing not just a third nightmare, but a "world-ending" scenario of being unable to enter the World Cup since 2014.

The Azzurri have become the only World Cup-winning team among the eight champions to miss three consecutive World Cups. Previously, Uruguay (1974-1978 and 1994-1998) and England (1974-1978) missed two consecutive tournaments after winning, but the self-destruction of Italian football is unprecedented.

The referee Tirpan, whom Italian fans worried about before the match, indeed became the "executioner" for Italy's World Cup absence for two consecutive editions. But who can the Azzurri blame? Previously in Stockholm and Palermo, Italy wasted too many chances themselves, and this time was no exception.

Keane Jr. received a "gift" from Bosnia goalkeeper Vasili's "own-goal assist" just 15 minutes into the away match, giving Italy a dream start. However, Bastoni's red card at the 41st minute decided everything; Tirpan's decision was correct, and Italy was once again destroyed by unforgivable self-inflicted errors.

At the 60th minute, Keane Jr. missed a one-on-one chance by shooting high, squandering Italy's last hope. The number of shots on target was almost only one-fourth of the opponent's; bluntly speaking, for nearly an hour before the penalty shootout, Italy relied entirely on Donnarumma's miraculous performance to survive until the penalties.

Donnarumma made as many as 10 saves throughout the match, seemingly exhausting all his luck, and was breached four times by Bosnia in the penalty shootout. Conversely, the first penalty taker for Italy was Esposito, the youngest player in the team. He was one of three Italian players celebrating Bosnia's qualification for the playoff final five days ago; heavy psychological pressure caused him to shoot wide. Cristante, the third penalty taker, hit the crossbar, completely ending Italy's World Cup dream.

After the match, the Milan Sports Paper gave Bastoni (who received the red card) and defensive mainstay Di Marco extremely low scores of 4 points, but player ratings are meaningless now. What Italian and even world football contemplate is: where should Italian football go next? Gattuso hugged the entire team and tearfully said this is football: "I am proud of my players; their performance, dedication, and passion should not suffer such a heavy defeat. We had three scoring opportunities; it's too regrettable." Gattuso admitted this loss is a heavy blow to the players and his family, to the whole of Italy, and to football itself: "Regarding the future, discussing it now is not important."

Since the 2018 World Cup, 22 European teams have participated in the World Cup, including Iceland with a population only 1/150th of Italy's. England, France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Croatia, and Switzerland have participated three consecutive times; Netherlands, Sweden, Poland, and Serbia twice. Italy is not ranked 17th in Europe as claimed by Italian media before the playoffs, but even lower at 23rd. Merely based on participation frequency in the last three World Cups, Italy has even fallen to Europe's fourth tier. Even considering squad strength alone, Italy cannot enter Europe's second tier anymore, let alone the championship-contending tier capable of competing for the World Cup...

Gattuso at the post-match press conference mostly criticized the referee's decisions, but Italian media led by the Milan Sports Paper pointed to deeper layers of the Italian football crisis. Gravina, the Italian Football Association president, who presided over Italy's two consecutive World Cup absences, became the target of criticism. After the match, he sat beside Gattuso. Gravina's first statement was announcing Gattuso's retention: "He is a great coach; I ask him to stay. You can evaluate the elimination outcome, but the technical aspect should receive continuous assurance."

But regarding himself, Gravina's remarks shocked world football: "Whether I leave is decided by the evaluation committee. The Football Association has no authority to decide how to build a team; we only summarize based on the league's actual situation." Asked why other Italian sports continuously succeed while only football fails, Gravina surprisingly stated: "Football is a professional sport; other sports are amateur." He admitted Italian football is in a profound crisis but passed the blame to the Italian government. Italian media noted Gravina has survived multiple crises since 2018, including lawsuits涉嫌 "money laundering" allegations. Amid unprecedented humiliation for Italian football, he is more likely to stay due to UEFA President Ceferin's support and Italy hosting the 2032 European Cup.

The most direct blow from World Cup elimination for the Italian Football Association is at least a loss of 30 million euros closely related to the Italian national team, including World Cup bonuses, TV broadcasting, ticket sales, and sponsor revenues. Absence from the World Cup will cause annual fees from existing sponsors to decrease, totaling at least a loss of 9.5 million euros. Adidas just replaced Puma as Italy's equipment sponsor, with annual fees skyrocketing from 22 million to 30 million + 5 million bonuses, plus product sales shares (reaching 11 million in 2024), but all will decline due to World Cup absence.

World Cup absence causes short-term revenue decline for the Italian national team: 88 million euros in 2017, 81 million in 2018; reaching 126 million in 2021 due to European Cup victory, sharply dropping to 96 million in 2022 after failure. In 2024, the Italian Football Association's annual revenue reached a record 224 million, with the Italian national team contributing 134 million. Qualification revenue could have been invested in youth training systems, maintaining a virtuous cycle for Italian football; now consecutive World Cup absences bring a vicious cycle, with no hope seen for ending this cycle...